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41.
In the present study an analytical procedure based on finite element technique is proposed to investigate the influence of vertical load on deflection and bending moment of a laterally loaded pile embedded in liquefiable soil, subjected to permanent ground displacement. The degradation of subgrade modulus due to soil liquefaction and effect of nonlinearity are also considered. A free headed vertical concrete elastic nonyielding pile with a floating tip subjected to vertical compressive loading, lateral load, and permanent ground displacement due to earthquake motions, in liquefiable soil underlain by nonliquefiable stratum, is considered. The input seismic motions, having varying range of ground motion parameters, considered here include 1989 Loma Gilroy, 1995 Kobe, 2001 Bhuj, and 2011 Sikkim motions. It is calculated that maximum bending moment occurred at the interface of liquefiable and nonliquefiable soil layers and when thickness of liquefiable soil layer is around 60% of total pile length. Maximum bending moment of 1210 kNm and pile head deflection of 110 cm is observed because of 1995 Kobe motion, while 2001 Bhuj and 2011 Sikkim motions amplify the pile head deflection by 14.2 and 14.4 times and bending moment approximately by 4 times, when compared to nonliquefiable soil. Further, the presence of inertial load at the pile head increases bending moment and deflection by approximately 52% when subjected to 1995 Kobe motion. Thus, it is necessary to have a proper assessment of both kinematic and inertial interactions due to free field seismic motions and vertical loads for evaluating pile response in liquefiable soil.  相似文献   
42.
We assess the effects of prospective climate change until 2100 on water management of two major reservoirs of Iran, namely, Dez (3.34 × 109 m3) and Alavian (6 × 107 m3). We tune the Poly‐Hydro model suited for simulation of hydrological cycle in high altitude snow‐fed catchments. We assess optimal operation rules (ORs) for the reservoirs using three algorithms under dynamic and static operation and linear and non‐linear decision rules during control run (1990–2010 for Dez and 2000–2010 for Alavian). We use projected climate scenarios (plus statistical downscaling) from three general circulation models, EC‐Earth, CCSM4, and ECHAM6, and three emission scenarios, or representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, for a grand total of nine scenarios, to mimic evolution of the hydrological cycle under future climate until 2100. We subsequently test the ORs under the future hydrological scenarios (at half century and end of century) and the need for reoptimization. Poly‐Hydro model when benchmarked against historical data well mimics the hydrological budget of both catchments, including the main processes of evapotranspiration and streamflows. Teaching–learning‐based optimization delivers the best performance in both reservoirs according to objective scores and is used for future operation. Our projections in Dez catchment depict decreased precipitation along the XXI century, with ?1% on average (of the nine scenarios) at half century and ?6% at the end of century, with changes in streamflows on average ?7% yearly and ?13% yearly, respectively. In Alavian, precipitation would decrease by ?10% on average at half century and ?13% at the end of century, with streamflows ?14% yearly and ?18% yearly, respectively. Under the projected future hydrology, reservoirs' operation would provide lower performance (i.e., larger lack of water) than now, especially for Alavian dam. Our results provide evidence of potentially decreasing water availability and less effective water management in water stressed areas like Northern Iran here during this century.  相似文献   
43.
The aim of this work is to model beam‐column behavior in a computationally effective manner, revealing reliably the overall response of reinforced concrete members subjected to intensive seismic loading. In this respect, plasticity and damage are considered in the predominant longitudinal direction, allowing for fiber finite element modeling, while in addition the effect of inelastic buckling of longitudinal rebars, which becomes essential at later stages of intensive cyclic loading, is incorporated. Α smooth plasticity‐damage model is developed for concrete, accounting for unilateral compressive and tensile behavior, nonlinear unloading and crack closure phenomena. This is used to address concrete core crushing and spalling, which triggers the inelastic buckling of longitudinal rebars. For this reason, a uniaxial local stress‐strain constitutive relation for steel rebars is developed, which is based on a combined nonlinear kinematic and isotropic hardening law. The proposed constitutive model is validated on the basis of existing experimental data and the formulation of the buckling model for a single rebar is developed. The cross section of rebar is discretized into fibers, each one following the derived stress‐strain uniaxial law. The buckling curve is determined analytically, while equilibrium is imposed at the deformed configuration. The proposed models for concrete and rebars are embedded into a properly adjusted fiber beam‐column element of reinforced concrete members and the proposed formulation is verified with existing experimental data under intensive cyclic loading.  相似文献   
44.
In many finite element platforms, a classical global damping matrix based on the elastic stiffness of the system (including isolators) is usually developed as part of the solution to the equations of motion of base-isolated buildings. The conducted analytical and numerical investigations illustrate that this approach can lead to the introduction of unintended damping to the first and higher vibration modes and the spurious suppression of the respective structural responses. A similar shortcoming might be observed even when a nonclassical damping model (ie, an assembly of the superstructure and isolation system damping sub-matrices) is used. For example, the use of Rayleigh damping approach to develop the superstructure damping sub-matrix can lead to the undesired addition of damping to the isolated mode arising from the mass-proportional component of the superstructure damping. On the other hand, the improper use of nonclassical stiffness-proportional damping (eg, determining the proportional damping coefficient, βk , based on the first mode) can result in assigning significant damping to the higher-modes and the unintended mitigation of the higher-mode responses. Results show that a nonclassical stiffness-proportional model in which βk is determined based on the second modal period of a base-isolated building can reasonably specify the intended damping to the higher modes without imparting undesirable damping to the first mode. The nonclassical stiffness-proportional damping can be introduced to the numerical model through explicit viscous damper elements attached between adjacent floors. In structural analysis software such as SAP2000®, the desired nonclassical damping can be also modeled through specifying damping solely to the superstructure material.  相似文献   
45.
表层海水二氧化碳分压是评估海洋碳源汇强度的关键参数,但其实测数据较少、时空分布极不均匀,导致二氧化碳交换通量的估算有很大的不确定性,海洋源汇特征就不能确切获取。为了解决这个难题,在收集的表层大洋二氧化碳地图(Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas,SOCAT)实测数据集基础上,运用广义回归神经网络建立二氧化碳分压与经纬度、时间、温度、盐度和叶绿素浓度间的非线性关系,构建了1998?2018年间全球1°×1°经纬度的表层海水二氧化碳分压格点数据,其标准误差为16.93 μatm,平均相对误差为2.97%,优于现有研究中的前反馈神经网络、自组织映射神经网络和机器学习算法等方法。根据构建的数据所绘制的全球表层海水二氧化碳分压的分布与现有研究有较好的一致性。  相似文献   
46.
黄河现行清水沟流路汊河运用方案探讨   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
对黄河河口现行清水沟流路范围内不同汊河的形成、演化及其特征进行了梳理总结,围绕汊河不同运用方案的影响效应进行了论证分析。研究表明:现行清水沟流路范围内的汊河运用方案不适用于多汊河轮流行河模式、同时行河与轮流行河联合模式和同时行河模式,而采用单一汊河轮流行河模式可以充分发挥海洋输沙动力,保证河口海域向外海的较大输沙量,对延长清水沟流路使用年限更有利,更为科学和经济合理。在现行清8汊河达到改道标准后,应优先使用老河道汊河,该方案不仅有利于未来海岸线的均衡发展,而且更有利于延长清水沟流路的使用年限。  相似文献   
47.
《海洋预报》2020,37(1):50-54
基于浮标站海浪历史数据,利用回归分析方法建立了海浪数值模式有效波高预报产品的一元二次回归方程订正统计模型。通过2017年7月1日-2018年10月10日期间业务试运行结果发现:订正方程能有效改善有效波高数值预报产品的预报精度,且预报时效越短订正效果越显著。其中,第6~11 h预报时效内的订正前后平均绝对误差值减小0.17~0. 241 m,第6~18 h预报时效内订正前后均方根误差减小幅度为0.103~0. 28 m。这说明应用订正统计模型对海浪模式输出产品进行订正,也是改进海浪模式预报准确率的一种有效途径。  相似文献   
48.
The dynamic relationships between land use change and its driving forces vary spatially and can be identified by geographically weighted regression (GWR). We present a novel cellular automata (GWR-CA) model that incorporates GWR-derived spatially varying relationships to simulate land use change. Our GWR-CA model is characterized by spatially nonstationary transition rules that fully address local interactions in land use change. More importantly, each driving factor in our GWR model contains effects that both promote and resist land use change. We applied GWR-CA to simulate rapid land use change in Suzhou City on the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2015. The GWR coefficients were visualized to highlight their spatial patterns and local variation, which are closely associated with their effects on land use change. The transition rules indicate low land conversion potential in the city’s center and outer suburbs, but higher land conversion potential in the inner near suburbs along the belt expressway. Residual statistics show that GWR fits the input data better than logistic regression (LR). Compared with an LR-based CA model, GWR-CA improves overall accuracy by 4.1% and captures 5.5% more urban growth, suggesting that GWR-CA may be superior in modeling land use change. Our results demonstrate that the GWR-CA model is effective in capturing spatially varying land transition rules to produce more realistic results, and is suitable for simulating land use change and urban expansion in rapidly urbanizing regions.  相似文献   
49.
针对Aqua和Terra MODIS AOD数据利用线性回归算法拟合结果不够精确的问题,本文提出了二次多项式回归算法对其进行拟合,二次多项式是指这个多项式的项数超过1,且最高次方数为2。采用二次多项式回归和线性回归算法分别对2015年随机选择的一天和4-6月的AOD数据进行拟合,并将两种方法拟合的结果进行对比分析。研究结果显示,针对同一组Aqua和Terra MODIS AOD数据的拟合,二次多项式回归方法拟合得到的RMSE、MAE、R值比线性回归拟合方法得到的值精度都要高很多,说明二次多项式回归拟合方法在Aqua和Terra MODIS AOD数据的拟合方面优于线性回归方法的拟合,证明了二次多项式回归拟合方法适用于此方面的研究,而且能够提升Aqua和Terra MODIS AOD数据拟合结果的精度。  相似文献   
50.
利用毕节2010-2019年观测资料,分析不同天气现象下日最高气温特征,建立高温模型,并对近5 a 24 h高温进行检验,得出如下结论:(1)毕节高温日变化在夏季最稳定,春季波动最大。气温日较差晴天最大,阴天最小,多云时略大于阴间多云。(2)毕节8~10成云出现频率高达65.7%,夏季晴天频率波动大,春、夏季多云频率较高,且按天气现象分类统计月平均高温时,其峰值均出现在7月。(3) 24 h高温预报准确率月、季变化特征明显,夏季准确率最高,较最低的冬季高出21.4%,在区别天气现象的情况下,阴雨天时预报准确率最高,多云时最低,其中12月多云时最低为25%。(4)回归模型分析发现不同季节同种天气现象24 h高温预报影响因子权重差异明显,日照时数和平均本站气压对模型影响程度较高。不同季节晴天影响因子差异最大,拟合效果最好时段在夏季,平均估计误差为1.2℃,估计误差最大在冬季,平均估计误差为1.7℃。  相似文献   
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